What sank the Bayesian superyacht in Italy?
157 points by rediguanayum 7 days ago | 270 comments
  • rediguanayum 7 days ago |
    NY Times found that an unusually tall mast, and the design changes it required, made the superyacht Bayesian, owned by a tech billionaire Michael Lynch, vulnerable. Lynch co-founded Autonomy and was celebrating his court case against HP when his yacht sank.
    • Hilift 6 days ago |
      Actually the case that Lynch won was the US vs. Lynch criminal case. HP won their civil case against Lynch years ago (~$4 billion). The deal overall was a colossal failure by HP. The fraud was merely icing on the cake. "HP lost more than $30 billion in market capitalization during Apotheker's tenure, and on September 22, 2011, the HP Board of Directors fired him as chief executive and replaced him with fellow board member and former eBay chief Meg Whitman, with Raymond J. Lane as executive chairman. Although Apotheker served barely ten months, he received over $13 million in compensation." The Autonomy leftovers was eventually sold to OpenText. Also the previous HP CEO (Mark Hurd) went to work for Larry Ellison. He had the highest bonus for any CEO in 2008.
    • rsynnott 6 days ago |
      Was this a machine summary? Because, I mean, you realise it's not correct?
  • serf 6 days ago |
    one of the quickest ways to ruin the way an established boat plan 'swims' is by adding a tall rig after de-masting.

    it's extremely enticing to 'add more sail' to a boat in order to squeeze more speed out of it, or achieve easier lufting.

    turns out that marine architecture is a lot harder than one thinks at first glance, and just about everyone that tries to tweak specs afterwards does so in such a way that makes the boat categorically worse.

    (don't ask me how I came to realize this after many dollars spent)

    • TylerE 6 days ago |
      This is true in many things. Most car mods make the car objectively worse unless you really need the niche thing the mod does - and even if you think you do, be really sure.
      • clivestaples 6 days ago |
        I'm a full-time RVer and see this all the time with diesel trucks. The trucks get "deleted" and modded for more power and to disable the DEF system. Almost everyone I've known throughout the years begins having transmission trouble within months, especially after heavy load. A few swear by it. I've got a very expensive Cummins and I'm hellbent to leave it stock (and under warranty).
        • m463 6 days ago |
          I swear the older pre-def cummins engines got like 15% more mpg than the def ones. but RVs have been getting heavier too.
          • jabl 6 days ago |
            AFAIU modern diesels have lower combustion temperatures in order to limit NOx formation. I imagine this comes at a cost in thermodynamic efficiency.

            Similarly particle filters, catalytic converters and whatnot reduce efficiency via exhaust backpressure.

            So all in all, reducing non-CO2 emissions do come at a cost in CO2 emissions (or fuel consumed, if you like). Is it as much as 15%? No idea.. And is it all worth it? I'd argue yes, old-school diesel exhaust is nasty stuff.

            • TylerE 6 days ago |
              Exhaust back pressure is not an issue at all on diesels because they all run big turbos.

              As for your later point...I very much concur. I started masking (n95) during the pandemic, and haven't stopped. I have a... large number of health issues including several respiratory ones. Exhaust in general really is nasty stuff. I live in pretty quiet smallish (100k) town, and it can be bad enough around here with all the pollen, but I wasnt recently on a whirlwind trip through the north east that saw me visit the dense urban cores of DC, Philly, Manhattan, and Boston. The difference in odor on the occasions I'd take my mask off on the sidewalk were kinda shocking as someone not used to it.

              • jabl 6 days ago |
                > Exhaust back pressure is not an issue at all on diesels because they all run big turbos.

                Not sure what you're arguing here. Isn't it quite obvious that resistance in the exhaust system means that the engine has to do more work to push the exhaust gases out; work that otherwise could be used to turn the crankshaft. Now of course a lot of that extra energy is wasted in any case, particularly if there's nothing like a turbocharger to make use of it.

                • TylerE 6 days ago |
                  Practically all diesels have turbos. You have literally have to go back to tiny tractor engines form The 60s to Find ones that aren’t. Turbos already provide a ton of back pressure. What’s downstream of that is pretty irrelevant
                  • 12thhandyman 6 days ago |
                    Ford and VW put a naturally aspirated diesel into their vehicles up until the early/mid 90s.
                    • TylerE 6 days ago |
                      Absolutely none of which have DPFs or EGRs.
                  • lupusreal 6 days ago |
                    Backpressure to the turbo reduces the efficiency of the turbo, no?
                  • jcgrillo 6 days ago |
                    My tractor from the early 00s doesn't have a turbo. Plenty of VW and Mercedes Benz cars built in the 80s and 90s don't have turbos.

                    Backpressure aft of the turbo is something you really want to avoid because it makes the turbine much less effective. The whole point is to use a pressure and thermal gradient to do work.

              • dexwiz 6 days ago |
                Out of curiosity do you live in the Great Lakes basin? I moved from Indiana to the West Coast, and I am always shocked at how bad the air quality is when I go back, even in rural areas. During wild fire season I monitor AQI, and when I zoom out I always see that Indiana is just as bad as the smokiest days on the West Coast.

                Something about the large, hardly noticeable depression traps bad air at a regional level. I wouldn’t move back for a myriad of reasons, but everyone is always surprised when I list air quality as one.

                • TylerE 6 days ago |
                  North Carolina. Locally it's not so much exhaust type stuff, but all the damn pollen, which I'm somewhat allergic too. Pine trees for miles. I'm about 50 miles inland from the coast so lots of wetlands so in the summer (Which means basically... late March through mid October - it's going to hit 82 here toomorrow) it's oppressively hot and humid.
                • selecsosi 6 days ago |
                  Similar migration (IN->CA), it has changed my life. I had the worst sinus/migraine issues growing up and my breathing has dramatically improved after moving out of Midwest, even compared on the worst wildfire weeks out here.

                  Coming from NWI, I know the mills had a lot to do with subpar air quality, but I had similar issues when I lived on the far Northside of Chicago so it seems to be more regionally affecting.

                  It's a similar top reason on my list to not living there long term again

                  • dexwiz 5 days ago |
                    Same with the sinus infections. Cold air + pollution = two weeks of sinus infections every winter. I haven’t had one since leaving.
            • bri3d 6 days ago |
              Yes, this is the exact trade from Dieselgate, as well - higher combustion temperatures increase efficiency, reducing CO2 output, but at the expense of much higher NOx production. It’s easily 15% or more.
            • 12thhandyman 6 days ago |
              I’m curious how combustion temperatures are lowered like you say - is it a pv=nrt relationship hinging on changes in compression ratio or something like injector technology?
            • throwaway48476 6 days ago |
              I was under the impression the engine had to be run hotter in order to break down the NOx particulates in the exhaust gas recirculation scheme which led to higher fuel burn.
              • themaninthedark 6 days ago |
                No, it is a lower temp which results in less burn hence the need to recirculate the exhaust back through to completely burn it....
                • m463 5 days ago |
                  hmmm interesting. In a gasoline engine with high temperatures, NOx is produced, but it is fixed by the catalytic converter. So I guess that's not possible with a diesel, so they have to lower temperatures. That must lower the efficiency of the engine because (I think) the temperature difference governs efficiency.
                  • themaninthedark 5 days ago |
                    https://www.natso.com/what-is-the-difference-between-exhaust...

                    Here is a quick overview of how the system works.

                    Currently only smaller engines are EGR+DPF only. It takes having an SCR(&DEF) system to reduce emissions to legal limits on most larger engines now and the technology has been combined to have an engine with EGR+DPF&SCR(&DEF).

                    There are issues with engines and the active regeneration that has to occur in order to clean the DPF(basically engine has to get very hot and burn out the buildup) and also issues with DEF, which is an ammonia solution, both with the electronic dosing units failing and solution purity.

        • iamtheworstdev 6 days ago |
          the issue isnt that they disabled their DEF system or deleted their DPF or EGR, it's that they probably installed new ECUs or flashed new fuel maps or something and boosted the power beyond the torque abilities of the transmission attached. In a lot of diesel RVs the transmissions are normally good to 2,000lb-ft, but the engines can be pushed beyond that pretty easily.
          • Moto7451 6 days ago |
            My truck owning friends like to blow through transmissions at 50-60K miles by driving their trucks like sports cars and aggressively short shifting while on power. None of them do “truck things” so it’s always a head scratcher as to why they continue to do this.
        • jcgrillo 6 days ago |
          The U.S. diesel tuning crowd seemingly never discuss air/fuel ratios. This is a huge mistake. Also it's important to understand how much torque your transmission is rated for and to not stray beyond it. It's possible to reliably extract more performance than the manufacturer supplied but you have to understand what you're getting into. Turning it up to 11 and "rolling coal" is gonna get expensive, and it's super dumb.
          • 12thhandyman 6 days ago |
            I disagree the diesel crowd doesn’t discuss air/fuel ratios but perhaps I’m misunderstanding something. Sizes and types of turbos, fuel pumps, injector nozzles are frequently discussed. I do agree rolling coal is dumb but most/many daily diesel drivers don’t like it either, have always seen it as kind of a high school thing.
            • jcgrillo 6 days ago |
              Maybe they've wisened up more recently but I've never seen an AFR gauge in a tuned diesel in the U.S., however they're as common as EGT and boost pressure monitoring elsewhere.
              • potato3732842 6 days ago |
                You can infer the same information it would get you via boost and EGT and whether or not your exhaust visually indicates unburnt fuel. You also don't need super precise AFR in a diesel like you do a high strung turbo gas engine.

                Wide band O2 sensors are unreliably enough that they're kind of a pain to keep working accurately long term if you're not on a racecar maintenance schedule and if you aren't tuning things to those extremes you don't need that level of precision anyway.

                Basically it just kinda adds up to "not worth it" for street vehicles

          • potato3732842 6 days ago |
            Really depends on which crowd you're talking about.

            The "I bought a tuner" or "I bought a kit" guys don't care or know enough to care.

            Once you start talking about people who are reading turbo specs and whatnot people do very much care (because turbos and injectors are expensive and you want them both to be compatible so they get the most out of each other).

        • dredmorbius 6 days ago |
          DEF system: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_exhaust_fluid>

          (Emissions control, reduces NOx in diesel exhaust.)

        • potato3732842 6 days ago |
          Those people are outnumbered 100:1 by people who simply deleted their trucks when the relevant parts gave them problem and kept the power at stock levels. Those people don't have a reason to brag anything like the "muh 100hp tune" people do so you don't hear about them.
      • AStonesThrow 6 days ago |
        In my final high school years, my parents gifted me a 1980 Corolla, and it became my experimental electronics lab for a while.

        I installed a pull-out stereo, a separate amplifier, various permanent and movable speakers, etc. I mostly had the pros installed them, but I was always tweaking things at the wire-harness level. I enjoyed my music EXTRA LOUD, with minimal distortion.

        And I had one of those basic aftermarket alarm systems. And there I was, constantly tripping the alarm for various reasons, and we lived in a safe neighborhood, so it was mostly an additional annoyance when I set it off, or armed it, or disarmed it: I was being super ostentatious.

        So my proudest DIY mod was to install a shiny toggle switch in the dashboard. The toggle switch had the sole function of disabling the alarm by cutting its power. So I basically handed it to the crooks who came along in a few weeks to steal all my cassettes. But honestly, I doubt that anyone on that block was sorry to see me separated from my music at that point.

      • cameronh90 6 days ago |
        Most mods in recent cars seem to just undo some of the regulatory emissions controls in exchange for a bit of performance. Engines aren’t leaving much on the table nowadays. CPU overlocking is going the same way.
      • shiroiushi 6 days ago |
        It depends on the mod. Some mods are easily an improvement; new tires are probably a good example here, because automakers frequently install crappy tires at the factory because of some sort of deal with the tire company, and worse, replacement for that same model of tire end up being much more expensive than better tires in the same size, probably because many consumers mistakenly think they need the exact same tire.

        But yeah, most "enthusiast" mods are a waste of money and make the vehicle worse.

    • scrlk 6 days ago |
      Sounds like the old maxim around boat ownership still holds: "the two best days in boat ownership are the day you buy it and the day you sell it" :^)
      • fsckboy 6 days ago |
        the joke is, "the 2nd best day of your life is the day you buy your boat" which makes the listener think "2nd? oh, must be after your wedding/birth of child"

        and then you say "the 1st best day is when you sell it"

        rug pull

        • jjordy 6 days ago |
          We used say boat stood for. Break out another thousand
          • AstroJetson 6 days ago |
            A “boat buck” Is $1000. How much was the bottom paint? All up pretty cheap, 7 boat bucks.

            Boats are just holes in the water that your throw money into.

            • jcgrillo 6 days ago |
              Bottom paint is about $250/gal. It takes us about half a day to sand the hull and roll on a layer. My 40' sailboat can be covered with 1 generous coat with 1gal with a little left over. $7k for bottom paint must either be a huge boat, an expensive crew, or both. It's just not all that expensive if you're willing to put in a little effort.
              • SOLAR_FIELDS 6 days ago |
                I’m no boat expert but doesn’t your statement imply some level of ease of dragging a boat out of the water to perform this operation? Something tells me that pulling a 40 foot sailboat out of the water, turning it over, painting it, and returning it into the water isn’t necessarily the most straightforward operation. A lot of complexity is probably loaded into “it takes us” and if we took a gander at the hourly rates of everyone involved in said operation as well as the upfront cost of the equipment to perform said operation as well as the safety measures required to execute the operation properly I feel like we would be a lot closer to the $7k number than the $250 number
                • 12thhandyman 6 days ago |
                  You just take the boat to the travel lift and it hoists out pretty easy. Under 1 or 2 boat bucks for in/out lift, dry storage, and paint if you DIY is reasonable for smaller vessels, like under 30’.

                  The tough part is scheduling and finding a boatyard if there’s not one close.

                  Your nautical mileage may vary

                  • 6510 6 days ago |
                    You have to pretend the DIY is free, or even fun. Boat people are usually not cheap to hire.
                    • jcgrillo 6 days ago |
                      If you don't enjoy working on boats owning one sure would get expensive. I guess I'm lucky in that I don't have to pretend? Sure beats office politics, I wish it paid nearly as well as computers.
                    • potato3732842 6 days ago |
                      > Boat people are usually not cheap to hire.

                      Costs a lot of money to make people put up with boat owners.

                • jcgrillo 6 days ago |
                  I didn't factor in haul out and storage because that's a separate thing from bottom paint. Haul out and transport costs about $1k/yr and storage cost over the winter is a further $1k.

                  Hourly labor rates are $0, I share ownership with 2 other people and we all pitch in.

                • emiliobumachar 6 days ago |
                  Turning it over seems unnecessary. Good point overall, though.
                • UniverseHacker 6 days ago |
                  This can be done for free by just beaching the boat and working during low tide. Although that can be illegal nowadays in some places. Plus a 40 foot boat is much larger than required for cruising anywhere you want- if your boat fits on a trailer it is not only easy to paint, but probably can get by without any.
              • bboygravity 6 days ago |
                If you're an engineer, I'm just going to x3 to x10 that time estimate to come to something realistic, just like I do with the engineers at work.

                That way it includes going to buy the paint and sandpaper, putting the boat in a drydock or otherwise on land, finding and dragging out the tools and getting power to them, drying the boat, cleaning it, eating, toilet breaks, taping off the edges etc, letting the paint dry, cleaning up everything afterwards, putting the boat back into the water and probably tons more that I missed.

                x5 sounds about right for this one.

                • yobbo 6 days ago |
                  It depends. For example, if the previous paint contains environmentally harmful compounds, you can not sand it without the infrastructure to collect the dust. The details depend on the location (regulation), but typically you need to hire this out.

                  Sanding takes multiple person-days and can be the wrong method (depending on details). Media blasting (like soda) is much preferred but requires machines and infrastructure to collect the run-off. In ideal situations, sanding is not necessary at all.

                  It can be several boat bucks, or just about a hundred dollars. It depends.

                  • jcgrillo 6 days ago |
                    It does contain harmful compounds. It wouldn't work to prevent growth otherwise. You use a random orbit sander hooked up to a shop vac just like when you sand anything else (unless you prefer dust going everywhere).

                    For a 40' sailboat it doesn't take multiple person days, it takes about a quarter of a person day. More if you really have to take off a lot of layered up material. And you're right, blasting would work better in that case.

                    • jabl 6 days ago |
                      > It does contain harmful compounds. It wouldn't work to prevent growth otherwise.

                      Nowadays there exists bottom paints such as polysiloxane based ones that work by creating a very hard and smooth surface that critters find it very hard to attach to, rather than poisoning them.

                      • jcgrillo 6 days ago |
                        Interesting! I'll look into that. My boat is overdue for a full paint job so that could be an option.
                    • yobbo 5 days ago |
                      There are levels of toxicity. For some old paints, allowing the dust or run-off from pressure washing to touch the ground would be violating some regulation. Removing those old paints is more complicated. They need to be removed completely and cleanly, so sanding is a bad choice.

                      This isn't the case for any paint now purchasable, but most still contain biocides that you want to avoid for your own health when cleaning or sanding.

                • jcgrillo 6 days ago |
                  No, it's not an "estimate". It takes half a day. If it took 5x that I would have said so.
              • AYBABTME 6 days ago |
                7k$ is about what yards quoted for such a job in NorCal. It's easy to DIY if you know what to do, but (1) it's a nasty job (2) it's toxic (3) it takes time and (4) you still end up paying about 2k$ if you're thrifty (in NorCal). I both hired and DIYd the job and it's a wash as to whether one prevails over the other. If I were doing nothing else but boating fulltime, I'd DIY it. But I have a job and family.
                • jcgrillo 6 days ago |
                  It is a nasty job, respirator with VOC filters mandatory and the clothes you wear doing it will never be the same again
              • AstroJetson 4 days ago |
                Hi, 45' boat owner here. Steps are pull the boat out by travel lift and block it. Power wash the bottom. Put up dust barrier. Don tyvek suit and mask. Sand with dust hose. Power wash the bottom. Paint first coat. Dry. Paint Second coat. Dry. Lift boat move blocking pads. Paint pad area. Dry. Paint Second coat. Dry. Launch boat by travel lift. Paint is $320 per gallon I need 2 gallons and a quart. Total time is 2 days if they hustle, 3 if the pull is late in the day. Lucky for me, they have not found blisters or any thing that takes fiberglass work, that adds time.

                Last time I had it done it was $6450 including tax. 7 boat bucks.

                • jcgrillo a day ago |
                  Your process, while undeniably more correct than mine, is substantially more involved. Mine goes like this:

                  1. In the fall, drive the boat onto the hauler's trailer, unstep the masts, and transport it to the yard. Place on blocks and pressure wash.

                  2. Winterize the boat, wait for spring.

                  3. In the spring, break out the shop vac and sander and sand the hull. Since it's a multi season ablative paint, don't sand it all off--just enough to smooth it out and get the dried, hard top layer off.

                  4. Roll on a coat of paint.

                  5. When the truck arrives to splash the boat, slap some paint on the spots where the stands' pads were, and where the blocks were under the keel.

                  6. Step and rig the masts.

                  7. Splash the boat and go sailing.

                  Steps 3-7 take place on two consecutive days, along with a bunch of other maintenance activities.

            • justusthane 6 days ago |
              I just learned about the Aviation Monetary Unit, or “AMU”. Same thing.
            • UniverseHacker 6 days ago |
              I find sailing to be a fun low cost, sometimes even slightly profitable hobby… I own a very small (17 foot) cruising sailboat I maintain myself and get endless fun for less than the average teenager spends on a cell phone. It has an even smaller sailing dinghy/tender I built myself from old redwood fence planks. It would be the last thing I would sell even if destitute- because although small I could live on it for free, and can also use it to get fresh seafood for free- not to mention traveling without fuel!

              (to paraphrase Sterling Hayden) my body is only about 6ft long… I sleep as well and have just as much fun on a 17 foot boat as I would on a 184ft boat- and despite being small mine is much more seaworthy than Bayesian was.

        • t0mas88 6 days ago |
          The same applies to airplanes. Which combines into the "If it floats, flies or f.. ehm.. fornicates, it's better to rent it"
          • bartread 6 days ago |
            Yeah, I seem to remember the full phrase is something like, “Advice for millionaires: if it floats, flies, or [fornicates], rent it.” Advice does not apply to billionaires, which is a category Mike Lynch may have snuck into depending on whose reporting you believe.

            As distasteful as the last part of that advice it, I can see the sense of the rest of it. You need to have enough money that the inevitably high ongoing maintenance costs (and I guess depreciation) simply aren’t a concern, or even something you have to think about because you have people to take care of it for you.

            • potato3732842 6 days ago |
              100LL and a quart red bottom paint cost the same no matter how much you make. The 3rd category scales with income.
    • aidenn0 6 days ago |
      I've been sailing on a 13 meter long boat in 40 knot winds, and that mast looks to have more area than the total sail we had up. The moment the wind imparts on such a tall mast must be massive.
      • shiroiushi 6 days ago |
        They should make these masts retractable.
        • kitd 6 days ago |
          Or use a kite.
        • bell-cot 6 days ago |
          That'd only help if they'd retracted it before the storm hit.

          Given that they didn't undertake other, "lesser" preparations before the storm hit...

          • aidenn0 6 days ago |
            Eh, there's some nuance there; the shipbuilder claims they didn't properly prepare and the crew say they did prepare. The limited evidence so far seems to side with the crew.
        • nradov 6 days ago |
          Old wooden sailing ships had masts that were somewhat retractable in that the upper spars could be removed and taken down on deck. But this isn't really practical with modern aluminum or carbon fiber masts. And it would complicate the rigging.
          • jgwil2 5 days ago |
            If you have an axe on board, all wooden masts are retractable in an emergency.
    • sellmesoap 6 days ago |
      Having a home designed (previous owner) world sailing vessel with a mast that is bigger then the original designer's spec. It made it around cape horn and has seen a lot of high latitude low atmospheric pressure no problem. I've heard it argued that a longer mast makes the boat more stable like a tightrope walker with a pole.

      I'm curious about how it went for you?

      • psd1 6 days ago |
        Not GP or mech eng, but I suspect something similar to the following:

        Sail area ~square mast height Mast wind force under sail ~linear sail area Mast diameter ~square mast wind force under sail Mast wind force reefed ~linear mast diameter

        If that's right, then you're in quadratic shit. How much bigger was the mast, a metre taller or - like the Bayesian - tens of metres?

    • Log_out_ 6 days ago |
      Broke boats and airplane owners club advertising?
    • potato3732842 6 days ago |
      People have been successfully modifying vessels to better fit their uses for thousands and thousands of years. This wasn't even modified after delivery. It was built to order this way by the OEM. Everything has tradeoffs. Sometimes people go too far or choose the wrong attributes. You're making a mountain out of a mole hill.
      • maxlamb 6 days ago |
        People have not been making vessels with 237ft masts for thousands of years. That boat literally had one of the tallest mast ever to exist on a boat. You combine the “extreme” nature of this boat with an extreme weather event and you get an extremely outlier outcome
        • randomNumber7 6 days ago |
          I did some resarch because i didnt believe your comment at first.

          It seems true, the preussen had a similiar height and was a really big ship.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preussen_(ship)

          It shows how utterly insane the design of the bayesian was.

          • jabl 6 days ago |
            Materials science has advanced quite a bit since the Preussen though. Aluminum, or even carbon fiber masts, rod standing rigging, Dyneema (UHMWPE) ropes, etc., all add up and drastically reduces weight.

            Not saying the Bayesian design was or wasn't insane, I don't know, but my point is that it shouldn't be judged compared to what was done over 100 years ago.

        • potato3732842 6 days ago |
          It's only ~10% taller than the top end of stuff that was cranked out for commercial use 150yr ago. Forgive me for being unimpressed.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Republic_(1853_clipper)

          Yes, the yacht is a much smaller ship but it has half as many masts it's masts are aluminum, it has engines so it doesn't have to run sail in poor conditions to maintain control authority and benefits from 150yr of improvements to watertightness.

          I get that everyone wants to act smug because "everybody knows that you don't put big weight high up, hehehe, stupid billionares" but I'm betting that when the dust settles, the circle jerking dies down and the reports get published the end result will be the mast being a contributory factor (I'm betting on the reduction in righting moment rather than wind area) at best and that the outcome would not have been that much more unavoidable had the same other currently unknown errors been made on the other ships of the class.

          A modern ship in good state doesn't just sink in minutes from capsizing. Other stuff had to have gone wrong here too. These vessels are designed that you can spend all day burying the bow in wave after wave. A little dip of one gunnel into the water should not be catastrophic. TFA discusses this.

          • maxlamb 5 days ago |
            Ok true but that boat was much much heavier and bigger. So the ratio of mast height to weight/size on the Bayesian was extreme
    • AceyMan 4 days ago |
      I searched the interwebs for what 'lufting' is and found nada.

      The term is luffing for anyone who wants to look further into these things (as I do/did).

  • yial 6 days ago |
  • karaterobot 6 days ago |
    Were mistakes made? The retractable keel was up. I'm no grizzled mariner, but that feels like a thing you'd want to do in a storm. Feels like at that point your yacht has all the stability of a guy standing up in a canoe.
    • LgWoodenBadger 6 days ago |
      The keel's purpose is to balance the boat so it remains upright. A sailboat without a keel can be capsized incredibly easily.
      • jabl 6 days ago |
        Presumably the thinking was that with all the sails down, there was no need to have the keel lowered. Which it probably wasn't, until the boat suddenly gets hit hard by an unexpected gust from the side and the windage of the rig is sufficient to capsize it.
        • laichzeit0 6 days ago |
          What would the advantage to not have it lowered be? Like you're sitting there, sails down, anchored. Why would you go "Nope, better if keel isn't lowered"?
          • krisoft 6 days ago |
            > Why would you go "Nope, better if keel isn't lowered"?

            We don't know yet. The rumour is that the mechanism of the extendable keel was prone to banging in the lowered state. You don't want to be disturbing the sleep of the guests paying you fortunes. That plus the also rumoured fact that the operating manual only required it to be lowered when sailing could explain why the crew did not opt to lower it at anchor.

            All of the above is based on internet whispers. The investigation report hopefully will answer this question with authority.

          • AdamN 2 days ago |
            Apparently the retractable keel was noisy (creaking sounds?) so was left up at night.
      • karaterobot 6 days ago |
        I think I phrased my comment poorly, causing confusion. I meant that putting down the retractable keel is something you'd want to do in a storm.
      • argiopetech 6 days ago |
        In this case, though, the boat was designed to run in many conditions (e.g., under engine, at anchor, etc.) with the keel retracted. The keel was only intended for use under sail.
    • jcgrillo 6 days ago |
      I sail a 1962 Block Island 40[1] with a retractable bronze centerboard. Granted, it's no mega yacht, but it has an aluminum mast that is at the thinnest 3/16" because at the time people didn't understand the material and were afraid of it. The main boom is a solid wood tree trunk that takes 3 of us to rig every year. Its solid fiberglass hull is 2" thick at the keel, tapering to about 1" at the toe rail, with solid fiberglass decks tapering from about 1" at the rail to about 3/8" where they meet the cabin top. In other words, this is a heavy, overbuilt, brick shithouse of a boat. But it's designed well and has enough ballast to be safe with the board retracted.

      The fact that the keel was up is no excuse at all.

      Adjacently, one glaring omission from the Times' coverage was reports of those gigantic cabin windows shattering. I wish they'd addressed that. I didn't know about the unseaworthy vents, but just looking at the pictures it seemed obvious that if you put that boat on its ear in any kind of weather you'd break those windows and sink.

      I've had my boat with the rail 2' under water in 6'+ choppy Buzzards Bay conditions gusting over 30kt and it was a hoot. When I imagine a floating hotel like the craft in the article in a similar situation, that's probably a fatality. I wouldn't be able to sleep onboard a boat like that.

      EDIT: There are also numerous examples in the historical record of whaling ships, clipper ships, war ships, merchant ships, and the like getting knocked down in storms and besides maybe crew being washed overboard and busted rigging getting through it relatively unscathed. It's absolutely inexcusable and shameful in the year 2024 for this to happen.

      [1] https://www.practical-sailor.com/sailboat-reviews/block-isla...

      • chawco 6 days ago |
        It's pretty shocking that a boat with no sail area could get knocked over bad enough to sink that quickly. Something had to be seriously wrong with the design. I'm not particularly salty, but I've sailed in 25-30kts with the rail buried and not even had a second thought about the boat sinking. I've been knocked down with full sails up in 25kts, and had a broach while racing -- sailboats can be expected to spend at least brief amounts of time on their side, even if you're not out doing anything particularly dumb. I just can't fathom how a boat wouldn't be able to survive 2 minutes on its side and still be signed off by a builder.
        • jcgrillo 6 days ago |
          It's a thing you can expect to happen, like falling while downhill skiing. Only the most extreme situations are like "if you fall, you die". If it's like that every time you go out, the prognosis is grim.

          EDIT: I can actually count on one hand the number of times I've been in situations like that and while it's a hell of a lot of fun it's not something you bring your friends, family, children, etc along for..

          • chawco 6 days ago |
            I’ve only been sailing a few years, but I racked up about 500nm of racing this summer. I’ve only been in these situations a few times, but had a ton of confidence in the boat and the skipper. It’s honestly a ton of fun, and feels more dangerous than it is, since the boats are (supposed to be) designed to handle this. That said, I keep the family away from this sort of thing, and take them out on our family friendly coastal cruiser for more leisurely sails.
            • jcgrillo 6 days ago |
              In order to enter e.g. the Newport-Bermuda race you need a minimum stability rating of 115. IIRC Bayesian's angle of vanishing stability was 75° keel up, and the vents started taking on dangerous amounts of water at 45°. That's not a boat I'd ever feel safe on! The skiing analogy would be like every single run is maximum consequence.

              Source (found in a cousin comment which now I can't find): https://www.sailingscuttlebutt.com/2024/08/27/former-bayesia...

        • LorenzoGood 6 days ago |
          Lots of Windage on a mast that tall.
          • jcgrillo 6 days ago |
            Yes but a knockdown shouldn't have sunk it, especially given (per the article) they had the hatches closed.
  • initramfs 6 days ago |
    Seems like yachts are kind of like the private airline industry- when a super rich person can afford to request a bespoke design, safety requirements sometimes get eased. Plus less testing of the boat could be it. Pilots and captains for unique designs/mods might not have as much experience as commercial airlines: https://www.ctinsider.com/news/article/is-flying-private-mor... One example is the standardization of buttons in an airplane make it easier to know where to locate the important latches in an emergency.

    Also, it's possible some of these basic balancing and center-of-gravity considerations were already known over 500 years ago- it's when a novel feature gets prioritized that the fundamental stability of the design gets overlooked.

    • jabl 6 days ago |
      > Also, it's possible some of these basic balancing and center-of-gravity considerations were already known over 500 years ago

      To nitpick, properly being able to do these kinds of stability calculations are a considerably newer invention. E.g. the famous Vasa ship capsized in 1628 because at that time ships were still designed based on rules-of-thumb and the experience/intuition of the builders, with no stability calculations done.

      • cratermoon 6 days ago |
        Pretty sure the builders knew the Vasa wasn't stable. The King of Sweden wouldn't take 'no' for an answer. Just 358 years later, the people in charge of a different kind of ship, named Challenger, also wouldn't take 'no' for an answer.
        • graeme 6 days ago |
          Yeah the Wikipedia is instructive.

          >In the last part of the inquest held after the sinking, a group of master shipwrights and senior naval officers were asked for their opinions about why the ship sank. Their discussion and conclusions show very clearly that they knew what had happened, and their verdict was summed up very clearly by one of the captains, who said that the ship did not have enough "belly" to carry the heavy upperworks.[81] When other ships that predated stability calculations were found to lack stability, remedial action could be taken to increase the beam.

          Also the original builder and his successor both died before completion. (Not suspiciously, but makes responsibility in construction harder)

      • jcgrillo 6 days ago |
        But those rules of thumb worked, mostly.
        • jabl 6 days ago |
          Of course they did, after all humanity has been plying the seas for thousands of years.

          Just pointing out that naval architecture, as a branch of engineering involving stability calculations etc., is much younger than 500 years.

  • einpoklum 6 days ago |
    > The retractable keel, which helped to keep the boat stable, was not fully extended when it sank.

    Regardless of inherent design issues which are perhaps debatable, this seems like a bit of a "Have you tried plugging it in?" kind of a situation.

    • krisoft 6 days ago |
      The rumour I heard on “The Yacht Report” youtube channel is that when the retractable keel was down it was noisy. (Probably because there was enough play in the mechanism so it was banging around as the waves passed.) And the thought was, again according to this unverified rumour, that they only needed to extend the retractable keel when they had the sails up.

      Now obviously nobody sane would make the knowing trade to risk their life for a bit of quiet. But it is easy to imagine the crew getting into the habit of retracting the keel so they can keep the rich guests comfortable. And especially if they were doing that on the regular and nothing bad happened ever people would normalise it and see it as the correct operating procedure. One might view this as a form of normalisation of deviance. “The gradual process through which unacceptable practice or standards become acceptable. As the deviant behaviour is repeated without catastrophic results, it becomes the social norm for the organisation.”

      (Technically speaking of course it is only normalisation of deviance if this was unacceptable practice. If it is true that the ship’s operating manual did not require them to have the keel down in that configuration then it is not deviance and then the term does not apply.)

      Will be interesting to read the exact findings about this in the investigation report once it is out.

      • Theodores 6 days ago |
        I thought the keel only needed to be down when they were something like 70 knots out at sea with the sails out, otherwise it was in the 'keel lite' position.

        Like yourself, I await the investigation report, however, I suspect that will be a bit underwhelming and only confirm speculation. It is not good to speak ill of the dead, so it will take a lot longer before someone tells the unvarnished truth. I suspect that will be a story of folly, with the big mast being the 'invisible clothes'.

        We have lots of these stories at the moment, from Oceangate all the way to the Boeing 'projects' that have been off the mark. You could 'explain it like I am five' to write a really good story book for bedtime reading for kids, going from the depths of the ocean to space, with follies that follow the same story, all the way. What a great time to be alive.

        • krisoft 6 days ago |
          > You could 'explain it like I am five' to write a really good story book for bedtime reading for kids, going from the depths of the ocean to space, with follies that follow the same story, all the way

          I love that concept!

        • davejohnclark 6 days ago |
          >I thought the keel only needed to be down when they were something like 70 knots out at sea

          60 nautical miles out to sea according to a write up by a former captain of the yacht (https://www.sailingscuttlebutt.com/2024/08/27/former-bayesia...)

          >One section of the Bayesian Stability book related to the use of the moveable keel… and defines when it must be lowered. In this vessel’s case it was required to be lowered when using sails, and/ or when over 60 nautical miles offshore (regardless of whether sailing or only using engines). At all other times, it could be in the raised position.

          Perhaps interesting for people, 'knots' is actually a measure of speed rather than distance and relates to the practice of counting how many knots in a line (rope) went over the stern of the boat during a certain time, giving the speed of the boat relative to the water (https://www.rmg.co.uk/stories/topics/knots-measuring-speed-s...)

          Edit: typos

          • krisoft 6 days ago |
            > 'knots' is actually a measure of speed

            Absolutely right. My first interpretation of that "something like 70 knots out at sea" was that it is the purported limit speed over which they must lower their keel. But that interpretation would be... improbable to say the least.

            70 knots (~130 km/h, ~80 m/h) is ridiculously fast for a sailing ship.

            I just checked and the fastest ever instantaneous speed reported by a sailing ship is lower than 70 knots. (68.33 knots to be precise)

            • Theodores 2 days ago |
              I felt that I had misspoke with 'knots'! I only know miles, but miles are a land thing and I knew they used something else on the water. Should have checked sources!
      • chawco 6 days ago |
        From what I understand, leaving the keel up would be reasonable enough if a boat was rigged as designed. Typically the boat would be ballasted differently if you have a retractable keel/centreboard. Sounds like converting the rig from a ketch to a sloop is probably the root of the design issues, combined with some troubling risks of down flooding from the various vents mounted close to the water line.
        • jcgrillo 6 days ago |
          You should have positive righting moment with the keel up and sails rigged, otherwise it's totally unsafe. When you're sailing downwind you have the keel up for speed. If you get knocked down in this situation--a broach, for instance--the boat needs to be able to right itself otherwise you probably die. This boat sank when it got knocked down, and it doesn't seem the keel had anything to do with it.
          • lazide 6 days ago |
            The keel should have helped stop it from being knocked down, by shifting the center of gravity down.
          • nickff 6 days ago |
            Do you know that raising the keel when sailing downwind was standard procedure on ships like this, or are you extrapolating from experience on dinghies and small keelboats? There are many yachts where keels are retractable, but left down when sailing downwind (the Hobie 33 comes to mind).
      • relistan 6 days ago |
        Check out the link somewhere here in this discussion above from the previous Captain of this boat explaining the architecture of the boat and the keel situation. It sounds like that probably had less to do with it than the vents being opened to run the HVAC.
  • pluc 6 days ago |
    Pretty ironic that the single mast, that was added for sailing speed, was the likely cause yet they never used the sails. They just enjoyed it looking imposing and different.
  • jabl 6 days ago |
    As a slight aside, if anyone is interested in the topic the 'standard' introductory text is apparently 'Principles of Yacht Design' by Larsson and Eliasson. In particular, including a chapter on stability calculations. You can find an older edition freely available on archive.org.
  • SMAAART 6 days ago |
  • dredmorbius 6 days ago |
    The cascading set of design failures brings to mind the 17th century Swedish warship Vasa:

    <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasa_(ship)>

    • 1attice 6 days ago |
      I thought of this too! But I thought the Vasa was sunk by leaving the gunports open?
      • stoperaticless 6 days ago |
        Gunports were meant to be used while sailing. (Good documentary: the pirates of caribean)

        reason according to wikipedia:

        > Vasa sank because she had very little initial stability—resistance to heeling under the force of wind or waves acting on the hull. This was due to the distribution of mass in the hull structure, and to the ballast, guns, provisions, and other objects loaded on board placing a lot of weight too high in the ship. This put the centre of gravity very high relative to the centre of buoyancy, thus making the ship readily heel in response to little force, and not providing enough righting moment for her to become upright again.

        My memory of vasa museum: At that time, ship designers not necessarily calculated center of mass and center of buoyancy.

        • mingusrude 6 days ago |
          The way this is told in elementary school in Sweden (source is Swedish) is that the Vasa was too narrrow, given it's height. So then the question is, how much wider should she've been to carry the extra height. Vasa's sister ship, Äpplet (the Apple) had a similar deck layout and was about a meter wider. As a layman, considering the technology at the time, it does not sound so much more wider.
          • potato3732842 6 days ago |
            >As a layman, considering the technology at the time, it does not sound so much more wider.

            Think about the lever arm of that "other half meter" of ship that you're dragging up into the air when you heel the ship over plus the increased displacement of the half meter you're burying into the water.

            Remember, ships aren't really subject to huge propulsive forces relative to their mass compared to land vehicles. So something like an extra meter is gonna make a pretty big difference.

          • dredmorbius 6 days ago |
            A small amount of beam makes a tremendous difference in hull stability.

            Anyone who's had experience with rowing shells will be quite aware of this. Beginner's / open-water vs. flat-water shells differ in width by only a few centimetres, but the difference in handling is profound. Both are unstable to the absolute novice, but even a fairly experienced rower from a wider shell will find the handling of a narrower one much more precarious.

            (Both are also inherently unstable with CoG well above midpoint, but the dynamic stabilisation provided by the rower or crew is much more critical for the narrower, and faster, shells.)

        • madaxe_again 6 days ago |
          They did, however the vasa was modified mid-build to have higher ceilings in the royal stareroom and therefore a substantially higher centre of mass, as this change had knock-on effects all over the design. They added something like a meter and a half of height, and it was substantially more massive than necessary as it was built into already laid down timbers that had been intended to accommodate a lower topdeck level.

          So… there are parallels. A wealthy owner saying “I want this”, and a shipbuilder deviating from a previously established design to meet their whims, resulting in compromised stability.

        • mr_toad 6 days ago |
          > Gunports were meant to be used while sailing.

          True but on the largest frigates even in moderate seas the lower gun deck had to be kept closed.

      • bell-cot 6 days ago |
        That was normal-enough practice. In a good harbor, in good weather...any normal ship would have been okay.

        The real problem was the Vasa's design & weight distribution - which were disastrously unstable. Which problem had previously been demonstrated in simple dockside testing. Here's Wikipedia's account:

        > In the summer of 1628, the captain responsible for supervising construction of the ship, Söfring Hansson, arranged for the ship's stability to be demonstrated for Vice Admiral Fleming, who had recently arrived in Stockholm from Prussia. Thirty men ran back and forth across the upper deck to start the ship rolling, but the admiral stopped the test after they had made only three trips, as he feared the ship would capsize.

      • dredmorbius 6 days ago |
        A combination of factors: Excessively narrow beam, additional gun deck, resultant high centre-of-gravity, healing over, and then shipping water through gunports.

        Gunports are most usually open when guns are firing, which occurs as a ship is under way. Merely having open gunports should not imperil a ship.

        The Bayesian similarly had a high CoG and windage courtesy its tall mast, and was apparently susceptible to shipping water should it heel sharply and/or encounter high seas, as seems to have been the case.

  • InTheArena 6 days ago |
    I subscribe to the NYT, via login with Apple.

    Try to login, and it never responds to the login.

    So I remember that I registered an account with an old email. Login, it send a verification code.

    And then doesn’t respond to that verification number.

    So I drop VPN… and it accepts the number… and immediately spams that email address..

    Only to throw up another paywall.

    And it still doesn’t accept the subscription I pay for.

    • mintplant 6 days ago |
      Do you have the Bypass Paywalls extension installed, by any chance? You may need to disable it for NYTimes.com.
    • oriettaxx 5 days ago |
      amazing!

      the very basic undervalued, as with the subject

  • water-data-dude 6 days ago |
    “Giovanni Costantino, the chief executive of the Italian Sea Group, the company that owns Perini Navi, said that when operated properly, the Bayesian was ‘unsinkable.’”

    I assign a rather low prior probability to any ship being “unsinkable”, so I’ll need better evidence than that before my posterior probability becomes more than minuscule

    • mulmen 6 days ago |
      “Operated correctly” is the true scotsman of unsinkable ships.
      • jcgrillo 6 days ago |
        Just don't crash it into an iceberg and you're all set.
    • stavros 6 days ago |
      Everything is unsinkable if you exclude the sinking conditions as "improper operation".
    • Animats 6 days ago |
      It's possible to come close. This is a U.S Coast Guard response boat being tested.[1] Using big straps and winches, it was pulled all the way over until it was upside down. It immediately righted itself. Most modern rescue boats and lifeboats are self-righting. With proper hull design and enough foam flotation blocks in the right places, boats can be made to right themselves. Unless the boat is chopped into bits, it will float.

      It's worth it for those classes of vessels. Their job is to handle very rough conditions. The price of such extreme stability is a rough ride.

      Self-righting yachts exist.[2] But they look like rescue boats with nicer interiors.

      Many recreational sailboats have enough flotation to survive 90 degrees of roll, with the sails flat on the water. This is called a "knockdown". In small craft, it's usually embarrassing but not a disaster. Larger sailing craft are usually built to avoid rolling that far.

      There's a conflict between luxury and seaworthyness. The things you want for rough conditions, such as high freeboard and few openings, conflict with what people want in a luxury craft. Bayesian apparently couldn't go past 45 degrees without water pouring in. A stupidly tall and heavy mast allowed wind to push it that far over with no sails raised.

      [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXF-TjOjD5k

      [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqVItm0jfE0

      • kragen 6 days ago |
        Your comment, if correct, is far better than the NYT article, explaining what happened and why in five short paragraphs.
        • Animats 6 days ago |
          That's just an overview. The real question is, how did a heavily ballasted sailboat with no sails raised get knocked down by wind alone? Other boats nearby did not report large waves. Nobody has really answered that yet.
      • jabl 6 days ago |
        > Self-righting yachts exist.[2] But they look like rescue boats with nicer interiors.

        > Many recreational sailboats have enough flotation to survive 90 degrees of roll, with the sails flat on the water. This is called a "knockdown". In small craft, it's usually embarrassing but not a disaster. Larger sailing craft are usually built to avoid rolling that far.

        Offshore racing rules tend to specify things like minimum angle of vanishing stability (AVS), they tend to be around 130 degrees. Similarly yachts sold in the EU must fulfill ISO 12217-2 which, AFAIU, also requires a minimum AVS of 130 degrees.

        Not sure if that applies to the Bayesian, it might be old or big enough to be exempt from these rules.

        • Animats 6 days ago |
          A former captain of the Bayesian wrote a 2-page note.[1] "The downflooding angle for Bayesian was around 40-45 degrees". The Angle of Vanishing Stability was, he says, in the 75 to 90 degree range, depending on whether the moveable keel was down. The movable keel, he writes, weighed 60 tons. It had to be down when sails were raised, but usually wouldn't be lowered in harbor. There were 200 tons of fixed keel ballast.

          [1] https://www.linkedin.com/posts/stephen-edwards-78539147_some...

          • jabl 6 days ago |
            Yes, I saw that writeup linked to in the discussion earlier. I'm no naval architect, but I'd imagine for such a big boat an AVS of 90 degrees sounds reasonable. But a downflooding angle of only 40-45 degrees, that's just bonkers.
            • Animats 6 days ago |
              The former captain says that's the angle at which the generator and HVAC air intakes flood. Those are closeable if the equipment is turned off. The US Coast Guard definition is "Downflooding angle means the static angle from the intersection of the vessel's centerline and the waterline in calm water to the first opening that cannot be closed weathertight and through which downflooding can occur."

              So downflooding angle safety certification for bad weather apparently assumes the boat being in a buttoned-up condition. But, buttoned up, the yacht has no air conditioning or non-battery power. One article mentions that lowering the moveable keel for more stability results in a much noisier environment below decks. So, rigged fully for bad weather, it ceases to be a luxury yacht.

              The ship was in harbor, at anchor. That's not usually a situation in which a ship is rigged for worst case conditions.

              Here's a picture of the infamous mast.[1] It's not just a pole. There's a lot of structure with surface area. Nobody seems to have anticipated that wind on the bare mast system was enough to knock the boat down. But it was.

              [1] https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/how-the-defining-fea...

              • oriettaxx 5 days ago |
                > The ship was in harbor, at anchor.

                you mean the Bayesian?

    • starspangled 6 days ago |
      About the best you can do is a boat that is fundamentally buoyant or (aka positive buoyancy) via a combination of materials and sealed spaces, which basically means you can submerge it, flip it, fill it with water, and it buoyancy is enough that it will come to the surface.

      But if you overload it or damage it and compromise air spaces or break off or crush lighter-than-water materials (e.g., styrofoam filled fixtures and voids), then it's no longer unsinkable. So you're right, nothing is unsinkable. Not even when "operated properly" and maintained properly, there's no guarantee you won't run into unforeseen conditions. An unsinkable boat is as ridiculous as an uncrashable airplane or automobile.

      • lazide 6 days ago |
        Arguably, if 'operated properly' a nuclear submarine is probably the best bet. Or a large aircraft carrier.

        One can chill under the waves, the other is so big we don't know of any waves that can meaningfully do much to it.

        • mr_toad 6 days ago |
          Rogue waves are suspected in the sinking of even very large vessels such as supertankers.

          If they hit a vessel and knock out the bridge, without control, drifting side-on to the waves in a storm even a huge vessel can sink.

          • lazide 6 days ago |
            And that is applicable to my examples how?
  • dang 6 days ago |
    [stub for offtopicness]
    • meindnoch 6 days ago |
      The one good thing about the sinking of the Bayesian: we can at least update our posteriors.
      • gosub100 6 days ago |
        And I know I'll fail at trying to understand it.
    • Jemm 6 days ago |
      [flagged]
      • dang 6 days ago |
        You can't post like this here, and we ban accounts that do, so please don't do it again. You may not owe billionaires better, but you owe this community better if you're participating in it.

        If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.

    • krick 6 days ago |
      Didn't bother to read the domain and didn't remember the boats name, so I didn't quite understand the title at first. Funnily, it immediately occurred to me, that it must be "that boat", but I half-expected to see some Alex Jones meets Eliezer Yudkowsky attempt to calculate how likely this stuff is to happen using Bayesian inference.
      • mock-possum 6 days ago |
        In order to determine the likelihood that the yacht has sunk, we must first examine our priors.
      • jhbadger 6 days ago |
        Or A.W.F. Edwards claiming that had it been the Frequentist, the boat wouldn't have sunk.
      • bitwize 6 days ago |
        I was expecting something like "stochastic terrorism", but targeting rich people exclusively in a play on "a rising tide that lifts only yachts".
  • shagie 6 days ago |
    URL Share version https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/31/world/europe/... (the richer media on the site doesn't get archived well)
  • Onavo 6 days ago |
    Seems like the Bayesian owner needs to re-examine his priors.
    • relistan 6 days ago |
      Hey, he passed way in this incident.
  • xiaodai 6 days ago |
    the Frequentists?
    • egl2021 6 days ago |
      I never expected to see headlines like "Authorities investigate Bayesian disaster".
    • raverbashing 6 days ago |
      Nah, they would try to sink the boat by attacking it at its most common location. Even if it wasn't there in the first place
  • walrus01 6 days ago |
    The former captain of the Bayesian laid out his opinion of what caused the sinking:

    https://www.sailingscuttlebutt.com/2024/08/27/former-bayesia...

    It should also be noted that the fishermen in the area all received notice of incoming storm activity and many of them took precautionary measures HOURS in advance of when the storm actually hit. Whoever was the bridge watchstander on duty during that time should have been paying attention to the immediate near term weather forecast info. This was an entirely preventable incident.

    • gloflo 6 days ago |
      Direct link to the statement:

      https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7233792... (no account needed)

    • jcgrillo 6 days ago |
      This was a very informative article. It seems they should have shut down the generator and hvac and closed the vents. Pretty wild that a 45° heel angle caused it to ship water, that sounds pretty scary, as does the 75° righting angle with the keel up.
    • mattpallissard a day ago |
      > Bayesian (ex Salute)

      Changing the name of a vessel is bad luck. That's all I need to know.

  • irrational 6 days ago |
    > "The ship was an unsinkable ship. I say it, I repeat it."

    Saying that when the boat is nearly 200 feet under the surface of the sea seems insane.

    • tanelpoder 6 days ago |
      Unsinkable ship, with design flaws…
    • aidenn0 6 days ago |
      In context he was trying to place blame on the crew, so he clearly meant "unsinkable when crewed correctly." He goes on to claim that they must not have properly closed hatches &c. for the storm.
      • chgs 6 days ago |
        When someone says unsinkable most people think titanic
    • noncoml 6 days ago |
      The set of boats characterized unsinkable and are now laying at the bottom of the sea:

      {Titanic, Bayesian}

      • alvah 6 days ago |
        Are you sure that's the complete set?
        • rbanffy 6 days ago |
          Very few ship designers say that.
      • rsynnott 6 days ago |
        The Titanic, at least, _was_ largely operator error (they shouldn't have tried to avoid the iceberg unless they were certain that they could do so; it was designed for a head-on collision and _that_ would not have sunk it).
    • null0pointer 6 days ago |
      Sounds like they didn’t update their prior.
  • kortilla 6 days ago |
    Bad priors
  • asdfman123 6 days ago |
    Unstable design and hurricane force winds are unfortunate Bayesian priors
  • HPMOR 6 days ago |
    These stories sound so abstract, and it’s hard to remember that real people suffered a real tragedy. I was visiting my friend at Princeton, when an acquaintance of his remarked that both of her parents were on the yacht. Really brought home how real it all was.
    • portaouflop 6 days ago |
      Now think of the thousands of people who die each year trying to cross the Mediterranean Sea for a better life.
      • niwork 6 days ago |
        Nice windup but I'll take the bait. It's hardly the same, is it? Doing something known to be very safe versus doing something known to be very dangerous, knowing full well that you're violating the law. What do you propose instead?
        • portaouflop 6 days ago |
          I would propose to no let people die on our borders.
          • pas 4 days ago |
            Unfortunately our dear "concerned" fellow citizens seem to be having their way.
      • rijoja 6 days ago |
        Right so Mike Lynch was in a huge legal case in the US, and ran a company that was large at least by UK standards, which meant that his action affected thousands of people, making this noteworthy.
    • jsnell 6 days ago |
      I don't know... Somebody posting on a message board about the parents of an acquintance of a friend is a lot of steps. I don't think an anecdote that indirect makes the event any more concrete for the reader.
      • HPMOR 5 days ago |
        For me it was more of an “oh sh*t, that person had a family.” And I feel like it’s easy for that to get lost when reading about people generally. Especially famous and wealthy people.
  • barbegal 6 days ago |
    The main problem is various vents along the side of the hull. Typically these are placed closer to the centreline of the vessel such that they can't be flooded at extreme heel angles. On luxury vessels they are placed out of sight of guests and in this case along the hull. Hatches into the water tight compartments were close to the centreline but in this case flooding would have occurred rapidly through the various ventilation systems instead.

    The boat builder will blame the crew for not closing these but I doubt there was any procedure to actually close them. The engine needs to run to generate power and the engine needs fresh air and an exhaust.

    • madaxe_again 6 days ago |
      I’m baffled (boom boom) as to why the vents aren’t designed such that they don’t allow water ingress - surely this would just be a matter of a manifold with a float in it, or a Tesla valve or similar. Fails safe, no power required.
      • grugagag 6 days ago |
        They probably will, Im sure luxury boat manufacturers learned something from this
        • terrut 6 days ago |
          Thankfully, international shipping safety standards aren’t left up to individual manufacturers. Having worked on ships worldwide for several years, I’ve seen how each major incident drives tighter, more effective regulations.

          The International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS), established in 1974, is continually updated based on lessons from past accidents, mandating strict requirements for all ships over a certain size. Parts of SOLAS even apply universally to all ships on any voyage, regardless of size. https://www.imo.org/en/About/Conventions/Pages/International...

          • MichaelZuo 6 days ago |
            Was there any regulation limiting the placement of external vents beyond a certain threshold? Or was it just a gentleman’s agreement between designers?
            • jabl 6 days ago |
              I don't work in the maritime industry so I might easily be wrong, but my understanding is that these rules are generally enforced not via national laws directly but via insurance. You can build any kind of ship you like, but then you have these classification societies that verify whether a ship has been built to standards, and if not they won't certify it and you'll have a very hard time getting insurance for your vessel. And in the end national laws tend to say things like your ship needs to be insured etc., not directly how it must be constructed.
              • MichaelZuo 6 days ago |
                So a gentleman’s agreement between certain insurance adjusters and actuaries?
                • diroussel 4 days ago |
                  Insurance is by contract and either side can take claims to court if the contract is not upheld. I wouldn’t call that a gentleman’s agreement.

                  The maritime system is complex. But it wasn’t just made up by a few people. It’s evolved continuously, internationally, for generations.

  • trhway 6 days ago |
    >Beyond being exceptionally tall — more than 40 feet higher than the original foremast — it was also very heavy, at least 24 tons of aluminum, possibly more.

    the yacht is 500 ton, 4m draught (with the retractable keel not extended). The mast is 72m height. So, the 24 tons at say 30m above center of buoyancy require - minimum - 240 ton at 3m below the center of buoyancy. Add to that that the center of buoyancy is inside the body at some depth under the deck, so the weight of the body above the center of buoyancy also needs corresponding weight (lever momentum, ie. mass x lever length) below the center of buoyancy. Doesn't look good.

    • bell-cot 6 days ago |
      > ...24 tons at say 30m above...

      And also the weight of full, rain-drenched sails. And a few crew aloft, fiddling with those sails. And...

      • joha4270 6 days ago |
        This isn't a square rig, but a bermuda rig. You don't go climbing on those.

        And while the article doesn't explicitly say that sails was stowed, it does mention that they were only under sail propulsion once during the trip and that they started the engines to maneuver into the wind. While a (rolling? I don't know the English term) sail is somewhat exposed to the elements even while stowed, its rolled up fairly tight.

        In short, I strongly doubt either wet sails or climbing crew contributed in any way to the sinking.

        • mr_toad 6 days ago |
          They were at anchor, the sails weren’t up.
        • bell-cot 6 days ago |
          > In short, I ...

          Correct. But my point was about the design & stability calculations. Not about the rigging state at critical moment, when this vessel failed. (And if things go seriously wrong up in the rigging, a few of your crew might just have to go climbing. Just like "sails could be wet", safety margins must allow for that.)

  • Walterpine 6 days ago |
    I heard there was a secret vault onboard.

    This rumor wasn't mentioned in the article.

    • avazhi 6 days ago |
      Because it’s not relevant.
  • Rattled 6 days ago |
    It's not mentioned in this article but it seems Michael Lynch's codefendant in the HP trial Stephen Chamberlain died a few days earlier - https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/sep/05/mike.... Seems to be a genuine coincidence though.
  • sillycd 6 days ago |
    A wave hit the ship
  • sillycd3 6 days ago |
    A wave hit the ship
    • _dain_ 6 days ago |
      Is that unusual?
  • p0w3n3d 6 days ago |
    I thought it would be about game theory...
  • jbs789 6 days ago |
    I like that the article acknowledges the trade-offs between comfort and safety in the design of these luxury yachts.

    So many seemingly small compromises along the way that seem to increase the vulnerability, then the crew is expected to compensate.

  • jakub_g 6 days ago |
    An interesting piece that contradicts the early reports about crew leaving vents open:

    > The company speculated that the crew did not close a watertight door between this hatch and the engine room. (...)

    > But witnesses, an Italian official familiar with the investigation and the underwater video challenged the company’s versions of events. The footage appeared to show the watertight door to the engine room closed, and the Italian official said the divers had not seen any open hatches on the hull.

    > Mr. Borner also said that after rescuing the captain, he asked him if he had shut the hatches. The captain said he had. Mr. Borner shared pictures taken by his guests a few moments before the Bayesian sank that appear to show that hull hatches were closed.

    Overall, a very informative article, it analyzes boat's documentation and compares it with other boats from the same manufacturer.

    • zeagle 6 days ago |
      I got the impression the yacht manufacturer is very motivated to attribute this on user error, likely for future sales.
      • noitpmeder 6 days ago |
        Hard to fault them for taking that stance
        • mywacaday 6 days ago |
          Very easy to fault them, an innocent until proven guilty persons reputation and freedom are on the line.
          • shreddit 6 days ago |
            Yachtmaker: But… money
          • krisoft 6 days ago |
            Even if after all the investigations it turns out the manufacturer were without blame (which usually is not the case) their attitude doesn't reflect well on them.

            Do you want to buy your yacth from someone who will blame everyone but themselves when things go wrong? I would rather buy a yacht from someone who will incorporate all the learnings into their new designs to make them as safe as possible.

            The attitude of "we are perfect, somebody else's fault" stinks, even if they are. More so if they are not.

            • orf 5 days ago |
              There are two possibilities: it’s their fault or it’s not their fault.

              In either case it’s advantageous to do what they did: either you’re wrong and the fact that your defective product killed your customers far far far outweighs any messaging you did before that comes to light, or you’re right and the initial message shows confidence in your product.

              Not making a statement shows the inverse: that it could be your product to blame, and if that story is what people run with then it’s much more harmful in the long run even if it turns out to be not your fault.

              Nobody makes purchasing decisions on big boats based on the perceived and subjective pettiness of their PR department.

        • chgs 6 days ago |
          Which is why large companies, and companies in general, have far too much power.
        • zeagle 6 days ago |
          I agree with you and upvoted your comment as see it's down voted. It's a very valid point that would be their default position regardless of moral obligations but it does read this is a design flaw related to grandiosity from the article.
          • sangnoir 6 days ago |
            The design flaw was insisted upon by the (original) dutch customer, and the owner seemed pretty proud of the tall mast too. Caveat emptor.
            • zeagle 5 hours ago |
              I disagree IF their design was flawed. Regulated professions like engineers who presumably designed this thing have moral and legal obligations to not crank out a death trap and say it's the buyer's fault. It's actually something I don't respect about the tech industry a whole with a wild wild west approach so probably not a popular view here.
        • ASalazarMX 5 days ago |
          Hard to ignore they're trying to use their own employees as unwilling scapegoats of a very expensive mistake. If they were a wiser cartel, they'd know to generously bribe their employees so they willingly accept the blame.
        • AdamN 2 days ago |
          No. Boeing is a case in point. When companies act defensive like that they burn trust that they are a serious engineering organization. I simply don't trust them at this point because they don't appear to be vocally self critical (or at least just quiet while the facts are being collected).
  • rsynnott 6 days ago |
    > The days were typically warm, sunny and calm, and finished off with plates of fresh langoustine and sumptuous chocolate.

    Hopefully not concurrently.

    • crazygringo 6 days ago |
      That line made me laugh too... langoustine as appetizer yes please, as dessert I don't think so.
  • AYBABTME 6 days ago |
    "Single mast for better sailing performance"

    and then

    "only sailed once in 5 days, motored the rest"

    silly tradeoffs.

    • argiopetech 6 days ago |
      Silly tradeoff, but typical of motor sailors/sailing.

      Wind isn't blowing the right direction? Easier to motor than tack. Sailing upwind? Easier to motor than have the guests stumbling into walls due to heel. Variable winds? No wind? Have to be at <place> by <time>? Easier to motor.

      • AYBABTME 5 days ago |
        Yeah, then get the double masted one? They made huge sacrifices and redesign to focus on a feature they barely use. Which is why I think it's silly.
  • ak_111 6 days ago |
    I didn't read the article but did it shed light on why some survived and some didn't? I am wondering if those who didn't survive probably died from trauma/injury during the capsizing, or was it because they were incapable of swimming in the rough waters?
    • jnovacho 6 days ago |
      From skimming the article, it seems the boat sunk in about 2 minutes. While most of that time it was already laying on it's side.

      This would make it virtually impossible to get out, if you were below deck.

    • krisoft 6 days ago |
      > was it because they were incapable of swimming in the rough waters?

      Maybe that was the case with the chef who was found outside of the vessel. The rest of the casualties unfortunately seems to have been trapped in the capsized vessel. (This is based on my present knowledge of rumours, the proper investigation is still on-going and our understanding might change.)

  • wkat4242 6 days ago |
    I don't really understand all the media hubbub about this. People die in private boats all the time, probably several more that week alone. But this is being treated like a major disaster and someone must be held responsible.

    Is it just because it was some rich guy that died? I don't think that makes it worse in any way than any other accident where people died, to be honest.

    I just don't really understand the outrage about this. When I hear that a young family is killed by a drunk driver I'm much more angry and sad. But you don't see the New York Times writing about those when they happen on the other side of the world. These people mattered too but they knowingly took a risk by camping out in the sea.

    • orbital-decay 6 days ago |
      How many of them are poorly designed superyachts, though? Superyachts are perceived as extra safe, and surely design blunders like this one are outstanding in 21st century naval engineering. I think a lot of people on HN would love to read a postmortem on how exactly the process in an experienced engineering company got bent to cater to the client's preference enough to kill him, or at least a safety board investigation report.
      • foobarian 6 days ago |
        It does seem like the incident is shedding a lot of new light on how poorly the super yacht design is regulated.

        Honestly one look at that mast and unless that thing is on a submarine I really don't know what the builders were thinking.

    • BJones12 6 days ago |
      1) Rich guy died 2) Crazy expensive luxury vehicle found to be secretly death trap 3) Millions/tens of millions of people are now familiar with luxury yachting thanks to the Below Deck TV shows 4) Undoubtedly some story of incompetence or negligence lurking
  • atx2bos 6 days ago |
    https://www.perininavi.it/yacht/2008-bayesian-formerly-salut...

    the yacht maker may want to take the yacht off their website...

  • runamara 5 days ago |
    The incompetente decision to anchor there. And to stay there with the forecast. Knowing you are the captain of a yacht with the tallest mast! They were anchoring on a sort of reef. Where wind and waves in strong winds can be very dangerous. Further more no precisions the stay on deck, start the engine, get the guest on deck or on shore. This is what his Dutch neighbours did!
  • runamara 5 days ago |
    Further more, there was a forecast. But no real action. You can blame the yacht builder. But then you are an incompetent captain..sailing in and accepting guest in a very dangerous environment.
  • runamara 5 days ago |
    This is not boat vents or the angle of the yacht on the water. It’s about a captain who should have make decisions, not to sail, not to anchor, get the guest off board. Lower more life rafts..