• gnabgib 11 hours ago |
    Discussion (33 points, 3 days ago, 14 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42207110
  • ivewonyoung 10 hours ago |
    This was always "expected" by people in the know ever since the Model S came out in 2012 and there was real world data on cars with 100K+ miles.

    Didn't stop the oil lobby anti-EV myths from spreading far and wide. And now both political factions hate EVs so expect even more people to continue to think batteries die in a few years.

    EV companies wouldn't be warranting the battery degradation for hundreds of thousands of miles and several years if batteries died easily.

    • recursive 10 hours ago |
      > And now both political factions hate EVs

      A significant fraction of people have now actually driven them. It's going to be increasingly tough to tell spooky stories about EVs when your neighbor/friend/coworker has been driving one uneventfully for 4 years.

    • bdangubic 9 hours ago |
      2014 Tesla S, 80k miles, battery still getting me 230 range - not too much drop off.

      99% of charges are at supercharger (which is also not supposed to be good for the battery)

    • datavirtue 3 hours ago |
      We have been cut off from Chinese vehicles right when we need them the most.
  • Panzer04 10 hours ago |
    This has always been true for anyone who knows anything. Batteries rapidly deteriorate from 100%, but the degradation gets slower the more capacity has already been lost.

    Even for consumer devices, battery aging and capacity loss is very slow after 70%, and they are exposed to much harsher conditions than EVs (no temp control, daily full cycling, etc).

    • ivewonyoung 10 hours ago |
      > This has always been true for anyone who knows anything

      Not sure that's true. I have seen comments on HN multiple times over the years claiming batteries die in a few years and were almost never downvoted.

      • voussoir 7 hours ago |
        This might not be quite as strong a rebuttal as you were hoping for!
      • throwaway290 7 hours ago |
        HN downvotes are not signal for truth, just popularity.
      • antisthenes 3 hours ago |
        > I have seen comments on HN multiple times over the years claiming batteries die in a few years and were almost never downvoted.

        Car batteries - very unlikely. Cheap portable electronics made in China - all the time.

        The problem with these comments is that there are at least 10 different battery chemistries, and dozens of potential use cases and duty cycles you can put a battery through.

        So yes, some combination of that will make batteries die in a few years. Most won't.

    • TexanFeller 10 hours ago |
      Very slow degradation after reaching 70% capacity is cold comfort when EV batteries are barely adequate for many people at 100%. EVs typically start with ~300mi range. 70% of that is 210mi. I live in the city, but my parents live ~150mi away from the city along a route that has zero superchargers and only a handful of slow chargers along the way. I couldn't even visit my parents reasonably on a single charge, therefore my next car(s) will be a hybrid. Hybrid sedans can give me the traditional ~600mi range so I can drive from Austin to Ft. Worth and back before filling up a small tank.
      • MostlyStable 9 hours ago |
        Hybrids are great. If they had slightly larger battery range (50ish miles), I'd probably go that route myself. More people should probably be choosing them.

        But I think that the situation you are posing: quasi regularly driving a trip that is >100 miles with no ability to charge at all is actually pretty uncommon. And even in your case, since you are driving that far (and visiting family), I assume you are staying overnight. You can get a portable lvl 2 charger for a couple hundred bucks that will plug into a dryer plug and charge your vehicle back to full overnight. (admittedly. this assumes the drive is in ideal conditions and you get the full 210 miles; given where you are going and the apparently lack of infrastructure, if this is mountainous at all, then yeah....very well might not make it)

        To me, the issue that actually affects more people is that if you need a family sized vehicle, your options are A) pretty limited and B) almost all >$60,000. For a single person, or a childless couple, EVs are pretty accessible, for families, that's much less true.

        • lukevp 9 hours ago |
          There is a ton of infrastructure between Austin and Ft. Worth, it’s almost a contiguous city at this point. And there are no mountains in the vast majority of Texas, it’s very flat. There are a lot of chargers on that route, not sure what OP is talking about.
          • MostlyStable 9 hours ago |
            I totally missed that they had actually specified the route, and was just commenting on a generic one (which is why I guess it might be mountainous, definitely places in the West where you can drive >100 miles without charging infrastructure....just also not many people to visit).
          • TexanFeller 3 hours ago |
            Austin to Ft Worth is not the route to my parents, it’s a separate drive I sometimes need to do. Yes there is good charging along that route, my point was that a hybrid could make that trip without wasting time for charging or filling up.
        • vel0city 9 hours ago |
          As someone with two kids, a Model Y or a Mach E are very reasonable vehicles for a family. Both are under $60k.
          • MostlyStable 9 hours ago |
            That's fair. I was basically taking my family's "worst case" scenario (10+ hour drive, 2 kids, 2 dogs, + luggage) and assuming that was typical, when in actuality that's probably as rare a situation as the one I was replying to. We can, just barely, make our current vehicle + roofrack work with 1 kid and 2 dogs when we visit my parents, but since we are planning a second kid, we are looking around for something larger.

            For anyone not trying do to both kids + dogs, there are probably a lot more options.

            • dzhiurgis 4 hours ago |
              Model Y is very spacious. I can take 2 kids + week worth of glamping gear. I did fit 3 kids in back before, but you'll probably want to get slimmer seats (which are far cheaper than upgrading 3 row car). It's ridiculous how versatile this car is.
      • lukevp 9 hours ago |
        Temple Buccees has a supercharger, as do many other places. Still, Texas is not a great place for EVs. Everything’s so far apart. Instead of a Hybrid, how about a PHEV or an EV with a range extender? The problem with hybrids is they have all of the complexity of an ICE as their main drivetrain, whereas an EV drivetrain is much simpler, more powerful and more reliable. If you can get a vehicle where the gas / diesel is just there as a power plant for the EV, you get the best of all worlds, plus the gas engine can run at peak efficiency which gives you better fuel economy and if the ICE has issues you can still drive with just the EV part.
      • gambiting 8 hours ago |
        We have a Volkswagen e-Up with a max range of maybe 150 miles, we drive it every day with longer trips on the weekends and I literally never even had to charge it outside of home in the few years I owned it.

        Not everyone's use case is the same.

      • tstrimple 43 minutes ago |
        The average adult drives roughly 40 miles per day. An EV battery with 25% the original max would still satisfy literally hundreds of millions of Americans for the vast majority of their driving needs.
    • potato3732842 7 hours ago |
      Even for consumer devices, battery aging and capacity loss is very slow after 70%,

      My laptop, power tools and iphone beg to differ....

      • dzhiurgis 6 hours ago |
        Do not charge them to 100% and you'll be sweet. For macOs there's free "Battery" tool on github. Charge your mover 1hr before moving and leave it half full. Power tools are trickiest as they sit full for months and months which is the most damaging. Still can estimate charge time tho.
  • Workaccount2 9 hours ago |
    It's unexpected because batteries are rated based on full charge/discharge cycles.

    But in reality it's comparatively very rare for those full cycles to happen. People overwhelming drive <40 miles a day and top off the battery regularly.

    • Gibbon1 5 hours ago |
      I'm not an expert but I've designed stuff with batteries for a long time.

      A large battery with proper charge and thermal management will last much longer under light service. Which is exactly what you have with longer range EV's. A battery rated at a 1000 full discharge cycles will probably last 5,000 light duty cycles.

      However people are mostly used to batteries in consumer products which utterly abuse cheap batteries to save money.

  • davedunkin 9 hours ago |
    How can I get my Nissan Leaf to read this paper? Its range has dropped to 50% of new and a refurbished replacement pack cost 150% the value of the car, which is in otherwise excellent condition. It has only 70k miles.
    • pcdoodle 9 hours ago |
      Since the Leaf has a smaller battery, it get's more wear and tear per trip.
      • Astronaut3315 9 hours ago |
        It also lacks active thermal management. That's more or less a requirement for long battery life.
        • cowmix 8 hours ago |
          THIS. The ARIYA is the first EV they've widely released (last year) with any active thermal management. I live in AZ, and all my friends with Leaf's all have had to have their batteries replaced at least once.

          All my Chevy based EV/PHEVs have had great battery life (so far) - knock on wood.

      • BonoboIO 9 hours ago |
        I think this is the answer. That is also a problem for hybrid powers vehicles, the battery is small and it gets charged and discharged 0-100 / 100-0 very often, if you use the hybrid as intended.

        Some manufacturers limit this, but in a few years we will see a lot of hybrids that have batteries that barely work and will not deliver the expected ev only distance by a lot.

        • teamonkey 8 hours ago |
          A lot of Toyota hybrids (but I believe not PHEVs) use NiMH batteries, which are longer lasting than the Li-ion batteries used in EVs and can withstand more charge cycles.
          • omgwtfbyobbq 6 hours ago |
            They last longer because they are treated gently compared to lithium packs in EVs (shallow/frequency cycles, lower charge/discharge rates, etc).

            When used in the same duty cycle, most lithium cells/packs should last longer than the same capacity NIMH cells/packs.

        • moepstar 8 hours ago |
          Not only that, those small batteries do cost a disproportionate amount of money to replace.

          If you want a real world opinion, check the EVClinic blog…

    • bdangubic 9 hours ago |
      what is fascinating about your comment to me is thag the value of your car has dropped precisely because people fear battery issues. my friend had a 2015 Tesla S in pristine condition, just a ridiculous car. replaced the battery so now we have 50k miles new battery like-new Tesla S that he could not sell for more than $30k. wild stuff…

      even though most people don’t do it, on more expensive cars it actually makes serious financial sense to replace the battery but on cheaper cars it does not!

      • aprilthird2021 5 hours ago |
        Your friend's Tesla did not drop in resale value because of the battery. If anything a new battery would make those who fear battery degradation more willing to buy this used car.

        It dropped because Teslas in general have a high maintenance cost associated and a high insurance cost (because insurers also see it as costly to maintain). High maintenance cost tends to sink a car's resale value.

        I know the car does not need oil changes or have the possibility of various failure modes an ICE car has, but when it does have an issue, like a dent or a scrape, etc. the cost to repair is much higher.

    • verisimi 9 hours ago |
      > a refurbished replacement pack cost 150% the value of the car

      When I researched evs, I couldn't make the economics make sense. 7 years for a car lifetime seems outrageous.

      • Tagbert 9 hours ago |
        Where do you get 7 years? That is not true of most EV. Even the worst ones, like the early Leafs did better than that.
      • vel0city 7 hours ago |
        The economics of that seems solid to me. If the battery is bad in year 7 it's replaced under warranty.
    • dzhiurgis 6 hours ago |
      Nissan probably did more damage to EV image than good. Even then it's NZs most popular used EV.
    • hedora 6 hours ago |
      Leafs don’t have active battery management. As far as I know, they’re basically the only widely available EV in the US with this problem.

      Just replace the car, as much as that sucks.

  • agumonkey 9 hours ago |
    After break pads, another good news I see :)
  • ggernov 8 hours ago |
    This is why I opted for a hybrid Camry over a new Tesla. I kept my previous car for 13yrs and still sold it for $11k.